45 days until the Chargers begin training camp at their Costa Mesa facility. 2018 will be much different and more focused than 2017 was when they started. No distraction from the relocation or speculating how the soccer field will look across the nation on TV. This year the team has national talking heads saying the Chargers should contend for the trophy in the AFC and they have all but giving them the crown in the AFC West.
Are the Chargers worthy of such high expectations? Could this year be different from previous seasons of high hopes only to be dashed away when the actual schedule gets played and they get exposed as pretenders not contenders? I'll give you a honest 100% look at the question on most charger fans mind?
Fans have a right to be excited right now as the team comes back to Costa Mesa for their 2nd year of football in LA. They finished 9-3 in their final 12 games. The defense looked to slowly began to realize what Gus Bradley expects from them in the new 4-3 defense. In 2017 the team only beat 3 teams with a winning record. Some of the hype might be a stretch but soon that will be determinbed. The secondary improved a already great personal put together by Bradley. How good is this secondary. We don't know. The pass defense stats are misleading because seldom did teams throw against the Chargers. They didn't have to when the run was so easily accomplished against the 31st ranked Chargers run defense.
The team didn't lose games because of a kicker. Those games came down to the kicker because of weaknesses exposed by the opposition.
Of course, the passing stats will be impressive when the opposing teams runs for 507 plays to passing for 436 plays.
The Chargers roster remained mostly intact and it another year a very close defense bonds even closer. The Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos are transitioning in 2018 with new players and new coaches. Some areas they got better and in some they got weaker.
KC still brings an 8 game winning streak vs Chargers where most of the games were blowouts. Andy Reid is 8-2 vs Chargers as a head coach in KC. His 183 wins against 120 losses as a head coach is worthy for the Hall of Fame over his 19 years.
There is reason for optimism this year but there is also a few things to cause worry about in this years team. There are some positions on the roster where the Chargers are loaded with talent. There are a few positions though where they are very thin on the depth chart.
The biggest question is and as always will be with a Charger team their health. If all the starters today played all 16 weeks then there in great shape. We know that's not going to happen. However, as long as the starting star players don't have a rotation for missing games due to being on the inactive list week in and week out then their setup well. For the point of this exercise let's forget about Jason Verrett. If he plays then the Chargers defense is stronger no doubt. But a player who has only played 5 games in 2 years can't be depended on. He is gravy if he there.. good if not oh well.;
AREAS TO IMPROVE IN 2018
1. START GAMES MORE EFFICIENT ON OFFENSE The Chargers only scored in the 1st quarter in 5 of the their 16 games last year That is equivalent to playing with one foot cemented in quick sand. It's hard to get up and recover and especially in the NFL. Imagine if the 28 touchdowns thrown by Philip Rivers also included some points by the offense in the beginning of games. Score earlier and the defense then can get more aggressive earlier in the games.
The Chargers didn't make the playoffs because of a FG here and there. It came down to field goals because of another area on the team was struggling.
The offense at the midway point in 2017 was week 9 and right after the loss to the Jaguars. The offense was hot and cold. The Chargers got very lucky when the schedule turned into playing the Browns, Redskins, Jets, Bills, and the Raiders.
THE OFFENSE THROUGH 9 WEEKS IN 2017
25th in scoring offense (18.6 points per game)
Held to 21 or less points in 7 games.
26th in rushing the football
17th in Total Yards
29th in 3rd down efficiency (38-112)
Offense made it to the red zone 20 times (5th lowest in the NFL)
Held to 54 yards rushing or less 5 times
Reason: Predictable play calling, A lack of execution, Errant throws by Rivers and missed blocking assignments.
2. TAKING IT TO ANOTHER LEVEL. The same ole Chargers, Preseason filled with over hyped expectations only to then get beaten by the Pats or the Steelers in the Playoffs. The Pats and Steelers are still in my mind in another league than the 2nd tier team in the AFC like the Jaguars, Chargers and Titans. Rivers is 0-7 vs Tom Brady in his career. He is 2-4 vs Big Ben. If you want to be considered an elite QB then play elite football and don't make excuses when you don't.
This is a pass fail league for QB. You either win or lose period! Posing for pictures as an entire defense is cute. But when Tom Brady gashes you for 333 yards and completing 32-47 passes. Your defense doesn't look so tough does it? I love the cockiness but don't forget to back it up on the field. Charger fans are tired of bowling ball and lights out dances. Normally leads up to getting pummeled in Rd 1 of the Playoffs at home!
3. IMPROVE ON SPECIAL TEAMS For two out of three years the Chargers have ranked dead last on special teams. Last yea,r they improved to 29th out of the 32 teams.
Kickoff starting points..the Chargers were dead last in the NFL.
They ranked 31st in kickoff coverage.
Travis Benjamin was 8th in the NFL with an average return of 9.5 yards.
He called for a fair catch 25 times in 2017.
Out of his 27 returns he gained 257 yards.
Desmond King took 17 for 353 yards.
The Chargers and the special teams coach George Stewart can't afford another year of being last in this crucial part of the game.
In OTA's WR Artavis Scott been taking kick returns as George Stewart keeps looking for answers within his unit.
4. BEAT THE CHIEFS. Don't sleep on Patrick Mahomes as a QB. But the schedule makers did the team a favor getting him early in week one. Their roster took took on a big roster change with some leaving and players like Sammy Watkins going to KC. Andy Reid knows how to coach a QB. Of course he may not need to if the Chargers don't improve the run defense. They can't replay the 172 yards and 155 yards that Kareem Hunt stamped on them last year. Gus Bradley had the Chargers in dime defense 86% of the plays in game 2 in KC. The Chargers corners and safeties were getting knocked around by guys normally reserved for linebackers.
Result: Missed Tackles. The players and the coaches should have had enough of Andy Reid out coaching and outplaying the Chargers.
GAMES I WANT TO SEE
Week 1 vs Chiefs Statement Game
Week 7 vs Titans Wildcard implications
Week 13 at Pittsburgh Put the AFC on notice
Week 16 Ravens Eric Weddle Bowl
These are the games you put on your big boy pants. They seperate the men from the boys. Anyone can beat the Bills, Browns and Raiders. Can you beat the teams that have been there and done that! Win these games and you can pose naked in my living room for all I care. This might be Rivers last chance at it. Be respectful and take advantage of what you have been given. Fans here can tell you how fast it can go from 14-2 to 8-8.
HIGH RISK / HIGH REWARD GUYS
Mike Pouncey stats http://pfref.com/pi/share/1Gsm7 . Pouncey brings loads of leadership and toughness to a mostly young group of lineman. The 3 time Pro Bowler is the most solid center Rivers has had since Nick Hardwick left. The depth chart is VERY thin at center if he goes down. Spenser Pulley was a nightmare to watch in 2017. In the 16 games, he started, he was PFF 3rd lowest rated center in the NFL. Scott Quessenberry was a future luxury pick in the draft. He is rough and needs to develop. No one wants to see Quessenberry taking snaps under center in games that matter in 2018.
Denzel Perryman stats http://pfref.com/pi/share/FcAXc The numbers speak for themselves. He played in 7 games in 2017. The team went 6-1 in games he played in. The opposition rushing average dropped when he is in the lineup. Perryman is vital to Gus Bradley 4-3 defense. He is beginning his 4th year in the NFL . The Chargers need him to play like the Perryman in 2015 that made 64 tackles in 14 games not the Perryman that missed half the season.
Mike Williams stats http://pfref.com/pi/share/dZ4db MIke Williams is the 2018 version of the hit Tupac song "All eyes on me". He can fill in for the production lost when Hunter Henry went down and Antonio Gates departed. Mike Williams can make this offense from good to elite by simply just contributing. When your a 1stb round pick it comes with heavy expectations. He was injured when they drafted him. 11 catches for 95 yards in 234 snaps isn't impressive as a RD 1 selection. With Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin ahead of him he won't need to do much. But he does have to step up this year with Geremy Davis and Artavis Scott climbing up the depth chart right behind him.
POTENTIAL BREAKOUT SEASONS
Darius Philon stats http://pfref.com/pi/share/zs9c7 snap counts in 2017 http://pfref.com/pi/share/jfwh1 Philon will be the starting DT on September 9th. He may not relinquish that role for the rest of the year. A big weakness the Chargers had in 2017 was their #2 depth chart guys being thrown into starting roles therefore taking more snaps than they were capable of handling. ( ETC Kyle Emanuel, Korey Toomer and Spencer Pulley).
These are good guys on the depth chart. They just are NFL starting worthy. In 2017, he played 509 snaps good for 48% of the defensive plays. With Luiget suspended and Justin Jones developing, the opportunity doesn't get any bigger than how Philon has it. I think he comes through big time.
Forrest Lamp Lamp is still ailing missing OTS's this week on the sideline riding the bike. The Chargers need him and he still has to go through his rookie mistakes. But with Pouncey and Feeney the makeup of the attitude on this line is mean. This is who coming gto play guard for the Chargers....
Melvin Gordon stats https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-does-melvin-gordons-real-world-value-match-his-fantasy-value. With Ekeler taking the snaps on 3rd downs and in the red zones and in another year of development. The running game will dictate the identity of the Chargers. Some people love Gordon and others point to his yards per carry as a reason to fault him.
When Rivers passes for double then the team runs. The Chargers were 0-4. When Lynn changed it to 34 passes to 29 runs. The Chargers improved to 9-3.
Lynn wants even more of a balanced multi running attack in 2018. The Melvin Gordon I saw the last 4 games was a much meaner son of a bitch than earlier in the season when his knee was troubling him. The last four games (3 wins) he averaged 4.29 yards a carry. Lynn will build the entire future offense around Melvin Gordon. This will be Gordon team in the very near future.
TRAINING CAMP AND PRESEASON
With 3 games vs the same opponent in the preseason as the regular season. The four preseason games likely will be some boring and full of vanilla play calling. The multiple camp battles this year make up for it as these could get really entertaining.
CAMP BATTLES
Kyzir White Vs Jatavis Brown
Jason Verrett Vs Trevor Williams
Kyle Emanuel Vs Uchenna Nwosu
Geno Smith Vs Cardale Jones
Caleb Sturgis vs Roberto Aguayo
Derek Watt Vs Anthony Manzo Lewis
Ben Johnson vs Sean Culkin
Artavis Scott as KR
OVERVIEW
ON PAPER..The Chargers seem primes and ready to make a deep run in 2018. On paper my previous marriage looked good too. But when you go through it and live it the expectations give way to reality. The Chargers have the talent now they need a little luck in 2018 and then we can debate Chargers-Patriots or Chargers-Steelers in January Playoff Football!!!
10-6 AFC West Champs
who cares SUPERBOWL OR BUST
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