In 2017 the AFC West was predicted to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. The 4 teams didn't live up to the hype. Major changes as a result are occurring to each teams rosters. Well to three of the four teams. One team is playing it safe. That team is the Chargers. Believe in what is being built and just fix the leaks to keep the chemistry that was built last year intact.
The Chargers off season could be named "Reload instead of Rebuilding."
As a lifelong Charger fans we have lived through so many preseason predictions of shiny rainbows and the mantra that "they are so close." The NFL season is long and can sometimes be even have some brutal of high hopes and then such low points of despair.
After winning 9 of their last 12 games just missing the playoffs. It is a pass-fail league. You either passed or you failed.This game is result driven. They don't hand out participation trophy's in the NFL. Given that measurement and using 2017 as a stepping stool to achieving their higher goals. This team seems at least to be more of a contender than pretenders. Before you can attempt to win a championship you first have to win their division. That is something that has alluded the Chargers since 2009.
Now that the roster are mostly finalized before another wave of free agency and preseason cuts it, it looks like we have a view of what the teams will look like when they hit the field to began the 2018 NFL Season. Let's examine how they compare to their 3 AFC West Rivals.
THE OAKLAND RAIDERS
I didn't even began to think of typing the soon to be Las Vegas Raiders. Their new home is "projected" to open in 2020. The construction could be cutting it too close any which case a delay could happen before the Raiders preside in their new home in Las Vegas. ( A delay in construction? Who would have thought) This year, the Raiders will still play in front of their Oakland fans in the Black Hole.
Jon Gruden her record as a head coach is 95-81. He has token his team to the playoffs 5 times going 5-4 in the postseason. He did have a winning record in 6 of his 7 years as a coach. Four in Tampa Bay and two in Oakland.
The Raiders made a huge change at the Head Coaching position by bringing in Jon Gruden. It's been 9 years since Gruden last coached a team. An eternity by NFL standards. Mark Davis invested a commitment of 10 years and 100 Million dollars to Gruden. Coaches contracts are not wrote with a pen other than a pencil is the preferred option. The contracts can be changed at anytime. Gruden financial details were never released.
Most of the players he is asking to follow him were in junior high school when he was coaching his last game. His QB was 13 when Gruden coached his last Super Bowl for the Bucs in San Diego over the Raiders. Khalil Mack was 13 as well. Gruden mantra of yelling in his players face and overly emotional on the sidelines was entertainment back then. I don't think these men want that entertainment in their coach.
Years and years of bad drafts and terrible business decisions were overcome when Reggie McKenzie took over as GM. It took awhile to get those deals of the Raiders books. In 2016, The Raiders were back in their old form from their glory years.
In 2016, The Raiders went 10-6 and averaged 26 points a game. Carr threw for 29 TD and was helped out by additional 7 TD on the ground. Khalil Mack was stalking the opposing QB's in the NFL. They finished their last 11 games winning 8 of them before losing to the Texans in the Wild Card Round.
In 2017, Derek Carr hurt his back. Even after returning the signs were lingering that Carr was not healed. Either did his team as they collapsed to a 6-10 record. The gave up more points (23) than they scored (18). Are the Raiders contenders or pretenders. Probably somewhere right in the middle.
Jon Gruden arrived in Oakland and tore the roster to his liking. They added 22 players and resigned four players offering tenders to five players. They no longer have Sebastian Janikowski, Sean Smith, Michael Crabtree, Aldon Smith or their punter Marquette King.
If there is such a thing as team chemistry in the NFL. Then the Raiders sliced it up and sent it down the river. Jon Gruden first draft back in the NFL left many scratching their heads. They used their RD 1 pick on a player projected to go in RD 2. Kolton Miller a Right Tackle was practicing at left tackle where Pro Bowler Donald Penn is the starter. Add Alden Key abuse problems as their 3rd rounder and Maurice Hurst heart conditions and the Raiders are the only team in the AFC West to self inflict injury on themselves this off season.
I can admit when I'm wrong. I said Cowher and Gruden would never coach again in the NFL. I mean what team would be dumb enough to hire a 10 year retread to coach your team in today's NFL? I see you Oakland Raiders.
The Raiders are the wild card team because of all the new pieces in 2018. I put them at 7-9 and 4th place in the AFC West. In Spring of 2020 ESPN will probably have 24 hour coverage of "Gruden Watch". I don't see this experiment working. I don't see it working in Las Vegas nor Oakland.
TP Prediction 7-9 4th Place
THE DENVER BRONCOS
Draft
DE Bradley Chubb
WR Courtland Sutton
RB Royce Freeman
CB Issac Yiadom
LB Josell Jewell
WR Daesean Hamilton
TE Troy Fumagalli
G Sam Jones
LB Keisshawn Bierra
RB David Williams
Additions:
QB Case Keenum
CB Tramaine Brock
LB Todd Davis
K Taylor Bertolet
LS Christian Kuntz
DT Clinton McDonald
T Jared Veldheer
S Su'a Cravens
P Marquette King
Subtractions:
Aqib Talib
Trevor Siemian
Corey Nelson
Donald Stephenson
Virgil Green
Cody Latimor
Brock Osweiler
Paxton Lynch
Denver started off strong in 2017 going 3-1. Bad QB play drove the team into a hole in losses and building frustration especially within the top 2 Broncos receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanual Sanders. The Broncos had trouble bringing the pass rush on the other side of Von Miller who restructured his contract to help build the Broncos back up.
John Elway avoided the FA frenzy of Kirk Cousins and drafting Baker Mayfield. He instead choose a veteran that lead the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game. Case Keenum enters Denver and his teammates who suffered bad QB play in 2017 looked at Keenum as a breath of fresh air.
When reviewing Case Keenum career it is best to use Pro Football Focus. and Pro Football Reference http://pfref.com/pi/share/BTizS.
Keenum was 9-15 before going 11-3 in Minnesota. His play in Denver is considered PFF Elite. While dropping back to pass under pressure he was rated 39.3, ADJ Comp % 69.2 with a passer rating of 39.3%. That is rated best in the NFL when dropping back to pass and under a rush.
Can Case Keenum repeat the 22TD to 7 INT and 3,547 yards passing from 2017 in the Denver? Everyone talks of Denver roster decline. They have some rosters changes but they also added some prime prospects in the 2018 Draft.
Keenum is used to playing in a dome. The three teams he played for previously had domes. It will be interesting to when the mountain high mountains turn into cold, snow and ice. The Broncos season will be mostly on Keenum shoulders. I have Denver in the middle just under the Chargers.
Four of Denver first 6 games are at home. The final 8 games after the bye week 10 is road games. Chances are the final week of the season when they host the Chargers will be the coldest game of Keenum career. He has never played in a football game before that was below the freezing mark.Chubb and Von Miller pass rush will give the opposing teams QB nightmares during the week. Chubb
Broncos 2018 TP Prediction 9-7 2nd place
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Kansas City Chiefs are the first obstacle in the Chargers way of achieving their goals. Their arch rival and the thorn in this teams side for 8 straight games. The Chargers thought they were on their way to being real contenders last year. A National televised game on Thursday night football. A chance to show the nation this team was unlike teams of years past. Win this game and win the AFC West.
The Chargers are 54-60 all time vs KC. The NFL is a pass-fail league. There is no moral victories and you don't get a ribbon for 2nd place. If you want to be the best. Don't talk about it but take it from the opposing team. The Chargers were not ready for that fight at Arrowhead and it killed the Chargers dreams on that evening in December. The stumbling Chiefs went into that game and embarrassed the Chargers weaknesses.
The Chargers were meeting teams at the right time last year. Buffalo changed their QB against the Chargers. Derek Carr returning way to early from injury to face the Chargers. The Chargers hadn't beaten a team with a winning record up to that point in mid December. In the end the Chiefs ran all over the Chargers defense for 174 yards. The Chargers started out as so many other games in 2017 scoreless in the 1st quarter. Their slow start in games (4 times they even scored in the 1st quarter in 16 games. You can over come that to beat bad teams. Often you'll find the clock clicks down to fast against quality opponents and a team will find themselves coming up to short in the end.KC had only attempt6ed 1 long ball on offense the whole game. They gave what the Chargers gave them and tormented the Chargers defense with short passes and running the balls. The Chargers linebackers were exploited for their lack of depth. 30-13 Chiefs was the stamp the Chiefs left on the Chargers.
The Chargers last beat the Chiefs December 29, 2013. Rivers has thrown 6 TD and 13 INT against the Chiefs since then. The Chargers spent the off season fixing their problems. The Chiefs went to revamp their team.
Patrick Mahomes is KC new QB. He will make his debut against the Chargers in Carson week 1. Marcus Peters who Rivers made look like a Hall of Famer is gone in KC secondary.
The Chiefs lost their General Manager to Cleveland. The draft held by KC in Dallas showed they missed his experience. The worst draft any team in the NFL
DRAFT
DE Breehand Sparks
NT Derrick Nhadi
LB Dorian O'Daniel
S Armani Watts
CB Tremaine Smith
DT Khalil McKenzie
Additions
WR Sammy Watkins
CB David Amerson
LB Anthony Hitchens
QB Chad Henne
NT Xavier Williams
RB Damian William
S Robert Golden
Subtractions
QB Alex Smith
CB Marcus Peters
DE Tamba Hali
G Zach Fulton
RB Damian Williams
ILB Ramik Wilson
CB Phillip Gaines
ILB Kevin Louis
CB Kenneth Acker
QB Tyler Fuller
CB Kendrall Fuller
A bad draft can set a team back 2-3 years. A bad draft with a team that has as many holes left in it as KC does can do some real long term damage. Andy Reid may not even be able to fix this mess.
TP PREDICTIONS Chiefs 8-8
THE CHARGERS
The Chicago Cubs recently over came their years of falling short and won a Championship. The Philadelphia Eagles just last year took their game to another level winning the Super Bowl. The draft class of 2004 shows us a few things. Big Ben took a not so great Steelers team to the Super Bowl. At one point Pittsburgh was sitting at week 12 at 7-5 in 2005. Big Ben then took his team to another level. The Giants in both years of 2008 and 2011 were not considered great by any means. In 2008, the Giants were 10-6 and barely winning their playoff games. The 2011 Giants team was even worse than the 2008 team. But Eli Manning let the defense dictate the game and took his team to another level.
Great QB don't make excuses, they over come them and lead their team to a level they have never been at before.
This could very well be Philip Rivers chance to join the elite SB caliber QB's. This is his best offensive line he has ever had. The weapons on offense are limitless for him to choose from. Melvin Gordon is the key to this offense moving on a balanced level. The Chargers were 0-4 when Rivers passed for at least 37 teams and ran the ball only 19 times. Coach Lynn and Whisenhunt changed the game plan before the Giants game. Rivers throw 34 times and they ran the ball 29 times. The result they went from 00-4 to 9-3. He ran for over a 1,000 yards last year and made defenders miss a tackle 44 times (2nd in the NFL).
The defense is just as good coming off a season that had them ranked 3rd against the pass. Problem was no team tried to pass cause their run defense was embarrassing. They posted the 31st worst run defense in the NFL.
To help fix the run defense they drafted S Derwin James. They got lucky in the draft with one of the best defensive players in the entire draft fell to them at pick 17. Telesco followed that up with 3 more defensive players in a captain from the USC defense who they fell in love with at the combine and Pro Days LB Uchenna Nwosu. He will help where the team got gauged for 4.7 yards a carry last year. Helping Nwosu is DT Justin Jones who played 3 tech at NC State. He will be providing more of a interior pass rush to help- Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. In round 4 they selected S Kyzir White. The coaching staff selected White to beef him up and move him to weak side LB. WR Dylan Cantrell and Scott Quessenberry were more of a long term luxury depth selections. Quessenberry will spend his time developing and fill in if Pouncey can't go at some point in the season.
The Chargers also added several corners to the practice squad for insurance for Jason Verrett. Verrett only played 25 out of 64 games and 322 snaps in the last 2 years. He has played only 5 games since 2014 so the team is protected if he tears an ACL getting off the plane to come to training camp.
Draft
S Derwin James
LB Uchenna Nwosu
DT Justin Jones
S Kyzir White
WR Dylan Cantrell
C Scott Quessenberry
RB Justin Jackson
Additions
K Caleb Sturgis
TE Virgil Green
C Mike Pouncey
CB Jaylen Watkins
QB Geno Smith
Subtractions
TE Antonio Gates
S Tre Boston
C Matt Slauson
G Kenny Wiggins
LB Korey Toomer
DE Chris McCain
K Nick Novak
LB Jerry Attachou
TE Sean McGrath
TE Jeff Cumberland
RB Andre Williams
RB Brandon Oliver
DT Tenny Palepoi
QB Kellen Clemens
T Michael Ola
This is the best team Philip River http://pfref.com/pi/share/8B0Eh. This year could define him as a QB. The stats are there but the intangibles are not. Rivers is 0-7 against Brady, 2-4 against Ben, Losing record at Arrowhead and in the playoffs. A losing record on the road in the playoffs. Pro Football Reference has him linked with similar quality shape as Michael Vick, Tony Romo and Matt Stafford. Rivers has the chance to define his career right now. Take the Chargers to another level. Take the Chargers to win the Super Bowl in 2018.
TP PREDICTION 11-5 AFC WEST Champions Rivers this is your time to shine!
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