THE QUANDARY OF REPLACING A FRANCHISE QB

                                                       THE FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK

 The Franchise Quarterback is defined as a quarterback that is the face of that franchise for his playing career. Under any and all circumstances he puts up top 10 numbers year in and year out.  He is safe, reliable and always efficient on Sundays.

To judge a quarterback I believe you should use higher measurements than say QB completions percentage. Bad teams have bad players and that can reflect unfairly on a QB development chart. Receivers can run the wrong routes and bad ones can drop passes. That in no way however should reflect on a QB performance. I like to look at big plays passing average, A QB rating and most of all a QB winning percentage. 

Dan Fouts put up record shattering numbers in his career. He was also only 3-4 in the playoffs. Winning in the playoffs is the measurement that history will remember. Philip Rivers has great regular season stats with winning 106 games to losing only 86 in his career. He like Fouts has a losing record in the playoffs at 4-5 in the Playoffs. But in his 11 years as a starter quarterback he has put his team in the Playoffs 5 times and has never missed a start. That is the definition franchise QB.


                                         REPLACING A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK

The Mount Everest of job duties if you work for an NFL front office is transition and maneuver from a franchise QB to a prospect QB. Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are a rare species to find in the NFL. The franchise quarterback is the one who takes his franchise to multiple winning seasons and makes believers out of the team's front office and the city's fans. They honestly believe every season can be a potential deep playoff run to the Super Bowl. Choosing the college QB who will be called on to replace such an established NFL star player and exactly how to go through the transitional process is the hardest and most crucial path a general manager and his scouting department will make in their careers.

The Denver Broncos searched for 13 years to try and find a suitable replacement player for John Elway. It was actually Elway himself that decided to go through free agency and acquire Peyton Manning in 2012. The Bills have been searching for over 22 years to replace Jim Kelly. Their divisional rival the Miami Dolphins have been rotating through starting QB's for 19 years with the Rams following them at 17 years. While the  Browns well... they have never even had one! The 49ers thought they had their guy in Colin Kaepernick but just as quickly their scenario changed and they were searching again going suffering through a 2 win season.

 A lot of teams think entering the draft they who their guy will be. Over time after getting their guy. Those high expectations give way to season after seasons of below production and lowered expectations. Most as a direct result of that GM and the teams scouts choice of a certain player coming out of college. The wrong selection can put a franchise back on average 3-5 years. General managers often get fired for their choice of drafting a certain player. Star athletes waste their years on a roster that can often look lost at sea with the failing QB leading the ship.

 Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees will soon need to be replaced by another quarterback on their teams. The NFL landscape will look so much different with those stars not playing on Sundays. Combine that and an inevitable work stoppage taking place when the current CBA expires in 2021 and you wonder. Will anyone even care at that point?

The graveyard containing the tombstones of Quarterbacks past who didn't live up to expectations is miles long. The general managers who were fired as a result of their choice roam around like ghosts in the same graveyard. Football fans who became accustomed to winning year in and year out. Now were being tortured by watching a prospect slowly develop to the faster stronger and more complex NFL style of play than these QB's were used to seeing in college football. Sometimes the prospects workout to be quality NFL QB's. More than not they fail to reach such heights. A select few will achieve the status of being a franchise winning QB. The names are familar like Andrew Walter, Tim Tebow, Brady Quinn and Sam Bradford. Hyped like the next Joe Montana on;y to be the next JaMarcus Russell.

 I've been saying for years Mel Kiper and Mike Mayock talk out of their ass before the draft. They need job security and protecting the NFL brand is a part of it. Every draft these "experts" drool at the mouth at the prospects in the NFL Draft. They do breakdown a player strengths and weaknesses that provide quality information. But other than that these guys are a scam. Kiper once claimed he would retire from Espn if Jimmy Clausen wasn't a successful QB in the NFL. Jimmy Clausen was drafted in the 2nd round by the Carolina Panthers. He went 1-13 as a starter in the NFL.

 Let's have some fun with this..JaMarcus Russell 9-22 as a NFL starter

                                 Mike Dumbass Mayock on Blaine Gabbert 11-37 as a NFL starter

                                   
                                                   Recap of the 1994 Draft

                                                 
 Mel Kiper had 5 draft pick correct in 2018. Last year he had 1 correct. Mike Mayock had 2 correct. Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus had 8 players that didn't even get drafted in Rd 1.Todd McShay had 5 correct. Walter Football had 9 correct. This year it was pretty quiet on the 32 teams front of what they were going to do. Mostly because even their own scouts couldn't agree on a assessment about some NFL prospects. The Chargers war room was the same in a heated debate about possibly drafting LB Texas Malik Jefferson. Chargers LB coach made it clear to Telesco that he wouldn't coach him. The draft isn't a science and more often than not it's just a crap shoot.

The Chargers are soon going to be faced with the same challenges of drafting a QB to develop under Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers contract expires at the end of the 2019 season. He may get extended one year to play in the new stadium in Inglewood. I severely doubt they do anything beyond the 2020 season especially with the lockout almost certain in 2021. Cardale Jones  is a suitable backup but I doubt he's the future of the franchise. The Patriots and Saints are procrastinating on the same decision. It only hurts more down the road with each season of waiting to develop the newbie QB. Here is an example of the challenges Tom Telesco will soon face.

Teams                                  Franchise QB                                 Replaced With          Years Looking

Bills                                      Jim Kelly (1986-1996)                  Todd Collins             13
They tried J.P Losman as their 1st Rd draft pick in 2004. Trent Edwards was a 3rd Rd prospect in 2007. Nathan Peterman was chosen in the 5th rd of the NFL draft in 2017  Fast forward 13 years and now Josh Allen has been selected in Rd 1 of this years draft. The Bills have had 5 winning seasons since Jim  Kelly retired in 1996.

Dolphins                               Dan Marino (1983-1999)               Jay Fiedler                18 
 The Dolphins had some success with Jay Fiedler at QB. But Fiedler wasn't the answer long term.  Josh Rosen was drafted in Rd 1 this year and he follows in the shoes of Dante Culpepper, Jay Fiedler, Jay Cutler, Chad Henne, Chad Pennington and Ryan Tannehill in failing to successfully replace Hall of Famer Dan Marino..     

Broncos                                    John Elway (1983-1998)             Brian Grise               12 years
 It was a long 12 years in Denver between John Elway and Peyton Manning. The only QB to have a winning season was Trevor Siemian and Jake Plummer. Tebow led them to a playoff win but no one believed he was a suitable long term QB. Names like Kyle Orton, and Jay Cutler had snaps at behind center for Denver. Neither could take Denver to the places John Elway did. 

Rams                                          Kurt Warner (1998-2009)              Marc Bulger           14 years
 The Rams have called two different cities home since Kurt Warner left St Louis at the end of the 2003 season. The Rams are too still searching for their new franchise QB. Marc Bulger and Sam Bradford failed to reach the heights of Kurt Warner. In fact, the Rams have only had two winning seasons since drafted Marc Bulger and now trying Jared Goff. Jared Goff might be their man. Only time will tell and it's 14 years searching for that winning formula at quarterback..

Raiders                                        Rich Gannon (1987-2004)           Kerry Collins            15 years
 Andrew Walter, Kerry Collins, JaMarcus Russell, Jason Campbell join the unfortuante list of  disgraced quarterbacks the Raiders have put out there behind center since Rich Gannon took the Raiders to the Super Bowl. If Derek Carr can stay healthy he could be their franchise QB to lead them into their new home in Las Vegas. After paying Jon Gruden a $100 million dollars to be the head coach of the most proud Raiders fan base. Bad choices and salary cap restrictions held the Raiders back from contending until Reggie McKenzie spent a couple of years taking out the trash. The Raiders will move into Las Vegas in 2020. The word is they might play at another location in 2019. That leaves 2018 as the final year for Raiders football in Oakland.

Titans                                            Steve McNair  (1995-2007)                         Vince Young     11     Vince Young was hyped coming out of college like so many others QB's before him only to go down in the NFL archives as a disappointment in the end. High expectations at seasons end just equal disappointment.  Now Tennessee hopes Marcus Mariota is the Titans answer after trying out Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Zach Mettenberger, and Charlie Whitehurst to replace the high standards that Steve McNair set before them. Vince Young did go 30-17 in Tennessee but he failed to be the answer that Tennessee was looking for. McNair took the Titans to the playoffs 4 out of his final 5 years in Tennessee including one heartbreaking Super Bowl. The Titans have had just 5 winning seasons out of the 12 years since Steve McNair departed for Baltimore.

Since the turn of the decade a list of quarterbacks taken in the first 4 rounds of the NFL Draft...

2000 Draft

Rd 1 Chad Pennington  
Rd 2  Giovanni Carmazzi  
Rd 3 Tee Martin

2001 Draft
RD 1 Michael Vick 
Rd 2 Drew Brees Marcus Tuiasopo
Rd 4 Sage Rosenfels Jesse Palmer 

2002 Draft
Rd 1 David Carr Joey Harrington
Rd 3 Josh McCown 
Rd 4 David Garrard
Rd 4 Rohan Davey Pats

2003 Draft
Rd 1 Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller
Rd 2 Rex Grossman 
Rd 3 Chris Simms

2004 Draft
Rd 1 Eli Manning, Rivers, Ben,
Rd 3 Matt Schaub
Rd 4 Luke McCown

2005 Draft
Rd 1 Alex Smith Jason Campbell Aaron Rodgers
Rd 3 Charlie Frye Andrew Walter 
Rd 4 Stefen Lefers 

2006 Draft
Rd 1 Vince Young Matt Leinart Jay Cutler
Rd 2 Tavaris Jackson Kelly Clemens
Rd 3 Charlie Whitehurst
Rd 4 Brodie Croyle

2007 Draft
Rd 1 JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn 
Rd 2 John Beck Drew Stanton  Kevin Kolb
Rd 3 Tent Edwards

2008 Draft
Rd 1 Matt Ryan Joe Flacco
Rd 2 Brian Brohn Chad Henne

2009 Draft
Rd 1 Matthew Stafford Mark Sanchez Josh Freeman 
Rd 2 Pat White Stephen Mcgee

2010 Draft
Rd 1 Sam Bradford Tim Tebow
Rd 3 Colt McCoy
Rd 4 Matt Kafka

2011 Draft
Rd 1 Cam Newton Jake Locker Blaine Gabbert Christian Ponder
Rd 2 Andy Dalton Colin Kaepernick Ryan Mallett

2012 Draft
Rd 1 Andrew Luck Robert Griffin Brandon Weeden
Rd 4 Kirk Cousins

2013 Draft
Rd 2 Geno Smith
Rd 4 Matt Barkley Tyler Wilson

2014 Draft
Rd 1 Blake Bortles Johnny Manziel Teddy Bridgewater
Rd 2 David Carr Jimmy Garroppolo
Rd 4 Tom Savage

2015 Draft
Rd 1 Jameisis Winston Marcus Mariota
Rd 3 Garrett Greyson Sean Mannion
Rd 4 Bryce Peters

2016 Draft
Rd 1 Jared Goff Paxton Lynch
Rd 2  Christian HackenbergRd 3 Cody Kessler Jacoby Brissett
Rd 4 Connor Cook Dakn Prescott

2017 Draft
Rd 1 Mitchell Trubisky Patrick Mahomes Deshaun Watson
Rd 2 Deshone Kizer
Rd 3 CJ Beathard

2018 Draft
Rd 1 Baker Mayfield Josh Allen Sam Darnold Josh Rosen LaMar Jackson 
Rd 2 Mason Rudolph
Rd 4 Kyle Lauletta

21 of these prospects will be starting in the NFL this year. 21 out of the 65 prospects selected through 17 years in Rd 1- Rd 4.

Since the year of 2000..
Rd 1  13 quarterbacks
Rd 2   4 quarterbacks
Rd 3   0 quarterbacks
Rd 4   2 quarterbacks

                                                                      OVERVIEW

In the last 26 years, only the Colts and Packers have selected back to back franchise quarterbacks. There was the Steve Young- Joe Montana dual but in today's salary cap that is not even an option to have a QB sit for 5 years. This makes you want to enjoy Philip Rivers career here much more. He doesn't have 3-4 years left. Rivers expiration date comes nearer and nearer. . This same dilemma is facing New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Giants and the Chargers. Enjoy the 2018 Chargers season because soon  it's going to be a gamble as to whom will replace the Rivers era and with what success or bust comes with that selection.

 So many factors have to take place to draft and then succeed with the transition process  from one quarterback to another. In order to be successful you need the right coaches in place, offensive and defensive schemes adapted to that QB ability, cap space to give the general manager flexibility and some luck helps too.

 There two routes A franchise can go with trying to find a franchise QB. You can put your trust in your scouting department and user a high draft choice on a QB that will give you the highest chances at success, You can find a undervalued QB on another roster in hopes of developing a star out of him, Or draft a mid to low level pick in the draft but the odds of past selections doesn't show a high possible success rate. The could draft a QB in round 1 which would give the team a 4 year contract and an option on the 5th That beats the old CBA where Sam Bradford who received a 6 years and $76 million dollar contract from the Rams. The Owners basically changed the CBA in 2011 because of the contract to Sam Bradford received. Sam Bradford went 18-30 as a starter in St. Louis. In contrast Andrew Luck in 2012 got a contract that got him 4 years and $22.5 million from the Colts. Luck is 43-27 as a starter.

 The Chargers don't have to look any further than their own history in replacing a Hall of Fame quarterback.  Dan Fouts was the man from 1973-1987. The search resulted getting Stan Humphries in 1992 and he led them to their first trip to the Super Bowl in the 1994 season. After Stand Humphries retired in 1997, The team rotated Craig Whelihan, Moses Moreno, Jim Everett, Ryan Leaf, Jim McMahon, Jim Harbaugh and Doug Flutie through the starting rotations as a starting quarterbacks until drafting Drew Brees in RD 2 Pick 32 of  the 2001 NFL Draft. The Chargers suffered through 6 straight losing seasons until Drew Brees returned them into the postseason in 2004.
They found Philip Rivers in 2004 in Rd 1.

In 2019, the Chargers have no option but to draft a replacement for Philip Rivers. Telesco can't play poker leading up to the draft next year. Everyone will KNOW the Chargers round 1 selection will be at quarterback in 2019. The ultimate gamble to find another Rivers style QB and avoid a Ryan Leaf style selection.

ust know more teams will fail than succeed while they search for their next franchise QB. Enjoy every snap Mr. Philip Rivers takes this year because his expiration date is approaching. The Chargers know from the past there is no guarantees in this league. The future is the great unknown.